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Economic growth and the budget
September 1, 2004

        
With the debate on whether or not we are in a fiscal crisis hugging the headlines, we can take time to look at what is happening in the economy of Eastern Visayas. There is a relationship between the fiscal situation and the state of our economy.

Let's look at production, employment and prices.

Our barometers for production are our harvests of palay, copra, and abaca - our major crops, and fish production.

Comparing last year's figures with those of this year's (April to June 2003 with April to June 2004), palay production rose by 8.4 percent. Copra had almost the same production as last year's. Abaca increased by 1.8 percent. Fish production increased by 8.1 percent.
These figures support the 5.2 percent growth in Gross Domestic Product announced recently.

While those stats may be good news, it is not the case in employment.

The employment rate declined from 90.6 percent to 87.6 percent. This means unemployment grew from 9.4 to 12.4 percent.

What about prices?

Prices, in general grew by 3.2 percent, with prices of fuel, light and water increasing by 8.7 percent and food by 2.7 percent.

What can we deduce from these indicators?

On the one hand, agricultural production is doing fine. Prices are not increasing significantly, although fuel, light and water are increasing much more than other items that a household consumes.

However, the employment situation is worrisome. It should be the focus of attention. This explains why job creation is the top item in President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo's Ten-Point Agenda.

Yes, our economy is growing but it has to grow more and provide more jobs to reverse the situation where increased growth in production is not accompanied by a corresponding increase in employment.

The huge budget deficit will certainly minimize government efforts to create more jobs through technical and credit assistance to small industries and agribusiness. If public funds for more job creation are not available next year, then the unemployment problem could worsen.